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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.